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Good News! India registers it's first Trade Surplus in 18 years! Will it last?

            Can you believe this? INDIA attained Trade Surplus (it is the amount by which the value of the country's Exports exceeds the cost of its Imports) status after 18 years. This was previously happened on 2002. That is almost two decades ago! At that time $10million Surplus was posted with exports of $4.3 billion. Lets take a look at the information based on the RBI report.
 

            Many people celebrated this in the social media including the Union Minister Piyush Goyal, Who tweeted ” Rapid Turnaround of Exports: Realising PM @NarendraModi ji’s vision of Atmanirbhar Bharat, for The first time in 18 years, India records a monthly goods trade surplus in June! “ on july 15th in Twitter. 
Do you want to know how this happened? Here we say how! 

India Exports:
Total exports on June 2020 were USD 21.91 billion which was 25.01 billion in June 2019 

Top 5 commodities recorded positive growth
1. Iron ore – 63.11%
2. Oil seeds – 50.48%
3. Rice – 32.72%
4. Oil meals – 27.36%
5. Spices – 22.92% 

Top 5 commodities recorded negative growth
1. Gems and Jewellery (-50.06%)
2. Leather and leather products (-40.47%)
3. RMG of all textiles (-34.84%)
4. Man made yarn, fabs, etc. (-31.98%)
5. Handicrafts excl hand made carpet (-23.95%)


India Imports:
            Total Imports on June 2020 were USD 21.11 billion which was 40.29 billion in June 2019. Top commodities which showed negative growth are as follows,
1. Gold (-77.42%)
2. Coal, Coke and Briquettes (-55.72%)
3. Petroleum and Crude products (-55.29%)
4. Machinery, Electrical and non-electrical (-42.02%)
5. Electronic goods (-34.05%) 

Trade Balance:


The above table shows the trade information of merchandise and services. Merchandise trade deficit was 9.12 billion. Services shows trade surplus of 13.98 billion as of the data of April – May. Now India experiences nearly 790 million of trade surplus when compared to $25.01 billion on June 2019.



            When estimating the Services for April-June 20-21, India will experience (-10.11%) of growth in exports and (-19%) growth in the imports with net services at $20.82 billion. Taking that into account estimating the trade balance then India’s trade surplus will increase to $11.70 billion in the upcoming month. 

            However, the situation is likely to change when India comes out of this Corona pandemic. Because many industries in India now relying on raw materials from foreign countries. The decline in Imports shows us the decrease in demand of raw materials and many other commodities in the market which is not a good sign and another reason for the decrease in demand in Imports may be India and China border dispute problems. 

            India should try to reduce its Imports and manufacture the products which can be manufactured in India and should look forward for attaining the self-sufficiency status after the end of this corona pandemic.


✏Do you have anything to say? Leave your thoughts in comments!! 

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